BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 5.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 5.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.95.614
20269.85.614
20279.85.614
20289.85.614
20299.85.514

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PickfordMICHIGAN742024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN552024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN412024
BayfieldWISCONSIN392024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN382024
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN321992
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN312004
FredericMICHIGAN302003
RhinelanderWISCONSIN302021
Lake CityMICHIGAN282022
Land O LakesWISCONSIN262016
HermanMICHIGAN232022
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN232011
Grand ViewWISCONSIN232024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN232024
IronsMICHIGAN221989
Iron RiverWISCONSIN212024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN202019
MayfieldMICHIGAN192022
AmbergWISCONSIN192024
OntonagonMICHIGAN182019
LockportMINNESOTA182024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN182024
MellenWISCONSIN182024
FlambeauWISCONSIN182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.