BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Northern Rockies has surged: up 459% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+459%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Northern Rockies: up 459% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cedar Waxwing In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.23.0
20272.11.23.1
20282.21.33.1
20292.21.33.1
20302.21.33.1

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thompson RivMONTANA232024
Libby DamMONTANA152025
BridgeportOREGON142025
ChewelahWASHINGTON142021
NaplesIDAHO112025
ClintonMONTANA112025
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON112025
Salmon RiverIDAHO102025
Whitefish LakeMONTANA102024
NewbridgeOREGON102025
CascadeIDAHO91984
KalispellMONTANA92025
Hells CanyonOREGON92025
CusickWASHINGTON92025
NezperceIDAHO82012
ChallisIDAHO82025
NinemileMONTANA82025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA82025
Clyde ParkMONTANA82024
WilsonWYOMING82025
GoldenIDAHO72015
CentervilleIDAHO72025
TroyOREGON72025
Twin LakesWASHINGTON72025
MidvaleWYOMING72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.