BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cave Swallow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 261% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+261%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cave Swallow has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 261% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Cave Swallow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 321% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±468.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+321%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±468.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 321% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±468.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.50.0016
20277.60.0016
20287.70.0016
20297.80.0016
20307.90.0016

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS232025
Allen CreekTEXAS82024
AdamsvilleTEXAS62025
RockspringTEXAS62000
UtopiaTEXAS32022
PidcokeTEXAS32016
ManorTEXAS32012
Valley SpgsTEXAS22019
HarperTEXAS22017
KempnerTEXAS22018
Dripping SpgTEXAS22017
LeanderTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22024
Indian MtnTEXAS12021
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12025
LeakeyTEXAS12022
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.