BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cassin's Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.004.6
20262.20.004.6
20272.20.004.6
20282.20.004.7
20292.20.004.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS362024
MegargelTEXAS232024
BriteTEXAS132024
TatumsOKLAHOMA122011
HobsonTEXAS122024
CottonwoodTEXAS62024
CampbelltonTEXAS52024
Massey LakeTEXAS52011
OlneyTEXAS52024
HenriettaTEXAS52022
Three RiversTEXAS52024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS52019
MuldoonTEXAS42014
Lone OakTEXAS32014
GrafordTEXAS32019
HearneTEXAS32011
BrucevilleTEXAS32009
DuranTEXAS31999
ComancheTEXAS32023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22014
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22006
E GeorgetownTEXAS21971
OsageTEXAS21971
RhomeTEXAS22006
Thornton 2TEXAS22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.