BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.004.6
20262.20.004.6
20272.20.004.6
20282.20.004.7
20292.20.004.7

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS362024
MegargelTEXAS232024
BriteTEXAS132024
TatumsOKLAHOMA122011
HobsonTEXAS122024
CottonwoodTEXAS62024
CampbelltonTEXAS52024
Massey LakeTEXAS52011
OlneyTEXAS52024
HenriettaTEXAS52022
Three RiversTEXAS52024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS52019
MuldoonTEXAS42014
Lone OakTEXAS32014
GrafordTEXAS32019
HearneTEXAS32011
BrucevilleTEXAS32009
DuranTEXAS31999
ComancheTEXAS32023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22014
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22006
E GeorgetownTEXAS21971
OsageTEXAS21971
RhomeTEXAS22006
Thornton 2TEXAS22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.