BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.004.6
20272.10.004.6
20282.20.004.6
20292.20.004.6
20302.20.004.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS192025
BriteTEXAS192025
MegargelTEXAS142025
Three RiversTEXAS132025
TatumsOKLAHOMA122011
GrafordTEXAS72025
CottonwoodTEXAS62024
CampbelltonTEXAS52024
Massey LakeTEXAS52011
OlneyTEXAS52024
HenriettaTEXAS52022
Whit Mtn.TEXAS52019
Lone OakTEXAS32014
HearneTEXAS32011
BrucevilleTEXAS32009
DuranTEXAS31999
ComancheTEXAS32023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22014
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22006
E GeorgetownTEXAS21971
OsageTEXAS21971
RhomeTEXAS22006
Thornton 2TEXAS22008
DuncanOKLAHOMA12022
SchroederTEXAS11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.