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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.008.1
20262.70.008.0
20272.60.008.0
20282.60.007.9
20292.50.007.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS382024
GeorgetownTEXAS91967
AdamsvilleTEXAS92024
MontellTEXAS92024
FitzhughTEXAS81980
Allen CreekTEXAS82023
LeakeyTEXAS42022
UtopiaTEXAS32024
HarperTEXAS22024
PidcokeTEXAS21995
RockspringTEXAS22023
BoerneTEXAS12023
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
KempnerTEXAS12016
Indian MtnTEXAS12023
Dripping SpgTEXAS12009
ManorTEXAS12024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.