BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cassin's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.00.008.2
20274.00.008.2
20284.00.008.2
20294.00.008.2
20303.90.008.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GirardTEXAS452025
RosstonOKLAHOMA442018
WilliamsTEXAS282025
EldoradoTEXAS252023
LakeviewTEXAS252025
HackberryTEXAS222024
Mertzon 2TEXAS222025
AshlandKANSAS212021
MertzonTEXAS212019
BeaverOKLAHOMA202018
Shields 2TEXAS202025
ChildressTEXAS192025
HaskellTEXAS172025
ColdwaterKANSAS162011
Beaver CreekTEXAS152025
GraybackTEXAS142024
WeinertTEXAS131994
Pear ValleyTEXAS122025
HawleyTEXAS112025
ClarendonTEXAS102024
ShieldsTEXAS92001
JetOKLAHOMA82022
WoodwardOKLAHOMA82025
HopewellKANSAS72011
CookietownOKLAHOMA72006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.