BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cassin's Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.008.3
20264.10.008.3
20274.00.008.3
20284.00.008.3
20294.00.008.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GirardTEXAS482023
RosstonOKLAHOMA442018
Pear ValleyTEXAS372024
WilliamsTEXAS312024
EldoradoTEXAS252023
LakeviewTEXAS242024
HackberryTEXAS222024
AshlandKANSAS212021
MertzonTEXAS212019
ChildressTEXAS212024
SilverTEXAS212024
BeaverOKLAHOMA202018
HawleyTEXAS202024
HaskellTEXAS192024
ColdwaterKANSAS162011
GraybackTEXAS142024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA132024
WeinertTEXAS131994
Beaver CreekTEXAS132024
BookerTEXAS122024
Shields 2TEXAS112023
ClarendonTEXAS102024
ShieldsTEXAS92001
JetOKLAHOMA82022
HopewellKANSAS72011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.