BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 7.3–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 7.3–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025287.749
2026287.649
2027287.548
2028287.448
2029287.348

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PepNEW-MEXICO1772024
SedanNEW-MEXICO1352024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO1202024
SkellytownTEXAS1142024
CrowleyCOLORADO1112024
PritchettCOLORADO1022024
TexlineTEXAS972024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA952024
FloydNEW-MEXICO942024
PlainsTEXAS912024
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO892021
BoyeroCOLORADO872017
CampoCOLORADO832019
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO791977
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO762024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO752022
ClovisNEW-MEXICO752024
TimpasCOLORADO742019
DalhartTEXAS732024
GilpinCOLORADO702024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO662024
EdisonCOLORADO652024
FeltOKLAHOMA652024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO632024
LoganNEW-MEXICO622024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.