BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 7.3–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 7.3–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026287.748
2027287.648
2028287.548
2029287.448
2030287.348

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PepNEW-MEXICO1772024
SedanNEW-MEXICO1562025
TexlineTEXAS1362025
PritchettCOLORADO1222025
DalhartTEXAS1192025
CrowleyCOLORADO1112024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO1022025
CampoCOLORADO922025
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO892021
BoyeroCOLORADO872017
LoganNEW-MEXICO862025
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO852025
GilpinCOLORADO842025
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO791977
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO752022
ClovisNEW-MEXICO752024
FloydNEW-MEXICO702025
FeltOKLAHOMA652024
KarvalCOLORADO622025
FarleyNEW-MEXICO622025
EdisonCOLORADO582025
HardestyOKLAHOMA572024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO562025
SkellytownTEXAS542025
PlainsTEXAS522025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.