BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201228
2026201228
2027201228
2028201228
2029201228

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelmoreFLORIDA742024
KenansvilleFLORIDA612024
GoetheFLORIDA592024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA572024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA522024
GardnerFLORIDA511999
Island GroveFLORIDA512024
TamiamiFLORIDA501974
St AugustineFLORIDA472024
NobletonFLORIDA442024
MicanopyFLORIDA411991
Babcock RnchFLORIDA411990
MabelFLORIDA392011
Ft MccoyFLORIDA392024
CroomFLORIDA382024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA362024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA342011
San AntonioFLORIDA332024
FlemingtonFLORIDA331999
OcalaFLORIDA302024
Green SwampFLORIDA282024
PinecrestFLORIDA262024
RomeoFLORIDA242024
DeanvilleFLORIDA242019
SebastianFLORIDA241992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.