BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201328
2027201328
2028201328
2029201328
2030201328

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelmoreFLORIDA742024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA682025
GoetheFLORIDA652025
KenansvilleFLORIDA622025
St AugustineFLORIDA532025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA532025
OcalaFLORIDA522025
GardnerFLORIDA511999
TamiamiFLORIDA501974
Mt. OliveFLORIDA422025
MicanopyFLORIDA411991
Island GroveFLORIDA412025
CroomFLORIDA412025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA411990
MabelFLORIDA392011
NobletonFLORIDA392025
RomeoFLORIDA352025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA342011
FlemingtonFLORIDA331999
San AntonioFLORIDA322025
Green SwampFLORIDA312025
PinecrestFLORIDA292025
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA262025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA252025
DeanvilleFLORIDA242019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.