BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 879% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+879%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 879% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 15–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 15–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201426
2027201426
2028211427
2029211527
2030211527

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest GroveMARYLAND632023
Island CreekMARYLAND622025
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY622013
CokesburyMARYLAND602025
HongaMARYLAND552025
WalnutMARYLAND482024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE472024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE472025
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY472025
La PlataMARYLAND462009
ManorvilleNEW-YORK462024
PepperboxDELAWARE442016
HolleyvilleDELAWARE412004
Port RoyalVIRGINIA392025
White StoneVIRGINIA382025
FredericaDELAWARE372025
BeltsvilleMARYLAND372012
HarringtonDELAWARE342025
MillingtonMARYLAND342025
GeorgetownDELAWARE332022
PomonkeyMARYLAND332025
MadisonMARYLAND332025
BerlinMARYLAND332025
MiltonDELAWARE312016
PomfretMARYLAND312024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.