BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 928% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+928%Since 1968
160Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Wren has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 928% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 15–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029
21Projected 2029 index
15–2795% range
±26.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025201426
2026201426
2027201427
2028211427
2029211527

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Carolina Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Island CreekMARYLAND1092024
CokesburyMARYLAND1022024
HarringtonDELAWARE822024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE772024
HongaMARYLAND662024
MadisonMARYLAND632024
Forest GroveMARYLAND632023
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND632024
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY622013
QuinbyVIRGINIA572024
MillingtonMARYLAND512024
Piney NeckMARYLAND512024
Port RoyalVIRGINIA492019
WalnutMARYLAND482024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE472024
La PlataMARYLAND462009
JessupMARYLAND462024
ManorvilleNEW-YORK462024
PepperboxDELAWARE442016
PomonkeyMARYLAND442024
Milton 2DELAWARE432017
MarionMASSACHUSETTS422024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE412004
MillsboroDELAWARE412024
Furnace TownMARYLAND402024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.