BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Carolina Wren in Piedmont has surged: up 416% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+416%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Piedmont: up 416% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 25–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 25–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025292334
2026292435
2027302435
2028302436
2029302536

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EarltonMARYLAND962024
Sunny SideGEORGIA862019
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA712024
RutledgeGEORGIA682024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND622024
FinchleyVIRGINIA622021
OlneyMARYLAND612024
WheatonMARYLAND602024
TrymeVIRGINIA542024
WhitesburgGEORGIA522024
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA522024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA512024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA492024
MaxeysGEORGIA492024
GrovetownGEORGIA482021
MadonnaMARYLAND472022
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA472024
FairviewNORTH-CAROLINA462024
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA452024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND442024
CallNORTH-CAROLINA422024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA422024
CandlerGEORGIA412024
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA412024
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA412024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.