BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+219%Since 1968
389Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Wren has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029
13Projected 2029 index
9.1–1695% range
±20.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025128.516
2026128.716
2027128.816
2028139.016
2029139.116

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY811997
Corryton RdTENNESSEE812019
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY671995
LovellTENNESSEE662019
WilliamsportMARYLAND602024
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA472023
TalladegaALABAMA462024
ShannonGEORGIA462019
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA442024
Jones GapTENNESSEE442019
RiversideALABAMA432013
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA431992
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA432024
OlcottWEST-VIRGINIA432024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA422024
CartersvilleGEORGIA422024
GreensportALABAMA412024
CarterKENTUCKY412024
StevensonALABAMA402024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA372024
FincastleVIRGINIA362024
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA362024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA362024
GuntersvilleALABAMA352024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.