BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+219%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
389Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.516
2026128.716
2027128.816
2028139.016
2029139.116

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY811997
Corryton RdTENNESSEE812019
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY671995
LovellTENNESSEE662019
WilliamsportMARYLAND602024
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA472023
TalladegaALABAMA462024
ShannonGEORGIA462019
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA442024
Jones GapTENNESSEE442019
RiversideALABAMA432013
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA431992
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA432024
OlcottWEST-VIRGINIA432024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA422024
CartersvilleGEORGIA422024
GreensportALABAMA412024
CarterKENTUCKY412024
StevensonALABAMA402024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA372024
FincastleVIRGINIA362024
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA362024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA362024
GuntersvilleALABAMA352024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.