BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+202%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
393Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026128.516
2027128.616
2028128.816
2029138.916
2030139.116

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY811997
Corryton RdTENNESSEE812019
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY671995
LovellTENNESSEE662019
WilliamsportMARYLAND472025
ShannonGEORGIA462019
Jones GapTENNESSEE442019
RiversideALABAMA432013
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA431992
OlcottWEST-VIRGINIA432024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA422024
StevensonALABAMA402024
Mt OliveALABAMA382025
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
BlacksburgVIRGINIA362025
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA362024
GuntersvilleALABAMA352024
Smyer LakeALABAMA342025
BaxterGEORGIA342022
Tar HollowOHIO342024
ClimerTENNESSEE342004
TradeALABAMA332024
OakmanGEORGIA332024
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY331997
Pine GroveALABAMA322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.