BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271935
2027271935
2028271935
2029272035
2030282035

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChathamLOUISIANA851975
Fishville 2LOUISIANA802025
FishvilleLOUISIANA652017
WomackLOUISIANA612025
Alexander StTEXAS612025
EvelynLOUISIANA592024
DibollTEXAS582025
CaledoniaTEXAS582025
Mount UnionLOUISIANA572025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA572025
NatchezLOUISIANA542025
AthensTEXAS542025
Easton 2TEXAS542025
WechesTEXAS502025
ChandlerTEXAS492004
TroutLOUISIANA482025
Flat CreekLOUISIANA482025
Big Sandy BithTEXAS482024
ManyLOUISIANA471992
LivingstonTEXAS462025
DerryLOUISIANA451989
LongstreetLOUISIANA452025
CartervilleLOUISIANA451992
Ivan 2LOUISIANA452025
Derry 2LOUISIANA432025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.