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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261934
2026261934
2027261934
2028271934
2029271934

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChathamLOUISIANA851975
WomackLOUISIANA692024
Fishville 2LOUISIANA672024
FishvilleLOUISIANA652017
ClayLOUISIANA602024
EvelynLOUISIANA592024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA562024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA532024
NatchezLOUISIANA532024
GoodwillLOUISIANA532024
Mount UnionLOUISIANA522024
AthensTEXAS502024
ChandlerTEXAS492004
Ivan 2LOUISIANA482016
WechesTEXAS482024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS482024
ManyLOUISIANA471992
CaledoniaTEXAS472024
Bon WierTEXAS472024
DerryLOUISIANA451989
CartervilleLOUISIANA451992
DibollTEXAS452024
Alexander StTEXAS442024
LivingstonTEXAS422024
Powell Park 2TEXAS422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.