BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Carolina Wren in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171023
2027171023
2028171123
2029171124
2030171124

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrianaALABAMA482012
BelknapILLINOIS462025
CraneMISSOURI432025
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY402025
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA392010
PetersburgTENNESSEE382019
Cave In RockILLINOIS372024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE352017
WhitewaterMISSOURI342025
CourtlandALABAMA332023
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA332014
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE332019
Carter GroveALABAMA322023
CollinwoodTENNESSEE312025
PulaskiILLINOIS302025
PalaceMISSOURI302025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY292019
HustonvilleKENTUCKY282025
WilliamsvillMISSOURI282025
BradyvilleTENNESSEE282021
Silver PtTENNESSEE272024
White HouseTENNESSEE262019
SyracuseMISSOURI252024
Wheeler DamALABAMA242025
RoyaltonILLINOIS242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.