BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

25×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.030.37
20270.210.040.38
20280.210.040.38
20290.210.050.38
20300.220.050.39

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakevilleINDIANA82024
KnoxINDIANA72025
PackertownINDIANA61993
HomerMICHIGAN62024
NashvilleMICHIGAN52025
LagrangeINDIANA42025
HoltMICHIGAN42025
Belding 2MICHIGAN42025
KewannaINDIANA32022
MottvilleMICHIGAN32025
Bell OakMICHIGAN32005
KingswayOHIO32025
LimestoneOHIO32025
EllisINDIANA22023
Packertown 2INDIANA22024
GalesburgMICHIGAN22025
DeckervilleMICHIGAN22013
MiddleburyINDIANA12025
Columbia CtyINDIANA12022
Indiana DuneINDIANA12025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12019
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12024
LawrenceMICHIGAN12024
New TroyMICHIGAN12022
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.