BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

22×Since 1973
51Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Wren has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029
0.19Projected 2029 index
0.04–0.3495% range
±59%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.030.33
20260.180.030.33
20270.180.030.34
20280.190.040.34
20290.190.040.34

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
LakevilleINDIANA82024
KnoxINDIANA62024
PackertownINDIANA61993
HomerMICHIGAN62024
LagrangeINDIANA52024
GalesburgMICHIGAN52024
MottvilleMICHIGAN42024
Belding 2MICHIGAN42024
KewannaINDIANA32022
MiddleburyINDIANA32024
NashvilleMICHIGAN32024
Bell OakMICHIGAN32005
EllisINDIANA22023
Packertown 2INDIANA22024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN22013
KingswayOHIO22024
Columbia CtyINDIANA12022
Indiana DuneINDIANA12008
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12019
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12024
LawrenceMICHIGAN12024
New TroyMICHIGAN12022
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12022
MontereyMICHIGAN12004
OlaMICHIGAN12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.