BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 530% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+530%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 11–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 11–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.918
2026141018
2027141018
2028151119
2029151119

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaTEXAS552024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS532024
BurtonTEXAS502024
Oak GroveTEXAS461999
HeyburnOKLAHOMA432024
CarlosTEXAS422024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA342024
PaigeTEXAS322024
Thornton 3TEXAS272024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS252024
LydiaTEXAS252023
DecaturTEXAS232024
HearneTEXAS222024
RhomeTEXAS202024
OsageTEXAS192024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS192024
DallasTEXAS182024
FanninTEXAS182023
Massey LakeTEXAS172024
YoakumTEXAS172024
TatumsOKLAHOMA162024
Miller GroveTEXAS162024
DikeTEXAS162024
BrucevilleTEXAS152024
Wills PointTEXAS152023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.