BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 605% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+605%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 605% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141019
2027151119
2028151119
2029151119
2030151120

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaigeTEXAS612025
CayugaTEXAS572025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS552025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS512025
Oak GroveTEXAS461999
BurtonTEXAS432025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA412025
CarlosTEXAS372025
LydiaTEXAS362025
Massey LakeTEXAS352025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA302025
HearneTEXAS292025
FanninTEXAS282025
DikeTEXAS232025
DecaturTEXAS232024
GrafordTEXAS222025
BrucevilleTEXAS222025
MuldoonTEXAS212025
CottonwoodTEXAS202025
Miller GroveTEXAS192025
WalburgTEXAS182025
WeatherfordTEXAS172025
Thornton 3TEXAS172025
YoakumTEXAS172025
LockhartTEXAS162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.