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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Carolina Wren in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+183%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.0–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.0–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.68.6
20266.23.78.7
20276.33.88.8
20286.43.98.9
20296.54.09.0

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dripping SpgTEXAS172024
LeanderTEXAS172006
AdamsvilleTEXAS152024
LeakeyTEXAS152024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS122024
KempnerTEXAS102024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS62024
UtopiaTEXAS52024
BoerneTEXAS42024
MontellTEXAS32024
HarperTEXAS22024
ManorTEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11983
FitzhughTEXAS11981
Valley SpgsTEXAS12023
San SabaTEXAS12016
PidcokeTEXAS12017
Indian MtnTEXAS12023
RockspringTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.