BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Carolina Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

20×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.732.1
20261.40.762.1
20271.50.792.2
20281.50.822.2
20291.50.842.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WellingtonKANSAS222024
DaltonKANSAS152024
VerdenOKLAHOMA152017
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA131994
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA131994
CashionOKLAHOMA102024
ElginOKLAHOMA102016
KanopolisKANSAS82024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA82022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA81994
ColonyOKLAHOMA71995
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA72022
BuckeyeKANSAS52023
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA52000
GoesselKANSAS42024
CoatsKANSAS32023
SolomonKANSAS32019
Red CloudNEBRASKA32018
ErickOKLAHOMA32023
HollisOKLAHOMA32024
SicklesOKLAHOMA32021
JetOKLAHOMA32024
HawleyTEXAS32008
GrayKANSAS22014
BerwetKANSAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.