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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Canyon Wren in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-30%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.2
20260.520.001.2
20270.520.001.2
20280.520.001.2
20290.510.001.2

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdamsvilleTEXAS52023
HarperTEXAS42024
UtopiaTEXAS32014
Valley SpgsTEXAS22002
PidcokeTEXAS22009
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS11998
FitzhughTEXAS11982
San SabaTEXAS11974
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11996
LeakeyTEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12001
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
Allen CreekTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.