BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-57%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±226.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.58
20260.000.000.58
20270.000.000.58
20280.000.000.58
20290.000.000.58

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock SpringsWYOMING111983
AlturasIDAHO61969
TwickenhamOREGON62024
Salmon RiverIDAHO52021
Willow Creek 2MONTANA52001
Mtn ViewWYOMING51983
CentervilleIDAHO22005
LogdellOREGON22022
MadrasOREGON22019
CumberlandWYOMING21982
Patrick DrawWYOMING21980
ChallisIDAHO12022
Thompson RivMONTANA12024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA12019
OchocoOREGON11981
BridgeportOREGON12022
Eagle RockOREGON11974
SpartaOREGON11976
Clover CreekOREGON11976
Silver CreekOREGON12008
Hash RockOREGON12021
Summit PrOREGON12012
NewbridgeOREGON12024
DonnybrookOREGON11997
MonumentOREGON12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.