BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Calliope Hummingbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Calliope Hummingbird in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Calliope Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Calliope Hummingbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Calliope Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Calliope Hummingbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.030.28
20260.150.030.28
20270.150.030.28
20280.150.030.28
20290.150.030.28

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Calliope Hummingbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic MtnIDAHO72024
SquirrelIDAHO42004
TwispWASHINGTON42022
BatesIDAHO32009
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22012
Dougal ResIDAHO22019
JarbidgeNEVADA22014
Modoc PointOREGON21970
Mt HoodOREGON21999
SistersOREGON22015
PauninaOREGON22010
ReardanWASHINGTON22014
SnowdenWASHINGTON21986
TonasketWASHINGTON22016
EllensburgWASHINGTON22018
Blewett PassWASHINGTON22024
MazamaWASHINGTON22022
WaitsburgWASHINGTON22001
NubieberCALIFORNIA12002
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA12004
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA12021
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12019
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA12002
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA11990
BartleCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.