BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Scrub-Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

California Scrub-Jay In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.3–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.3–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.45.0
20263.21.45.0
20273.21.45.0
20283.11.34.9
20293.11.34.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA382012
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA232019
Emigrant LkOREGON232001
LongvaleCALIFORNIA222023
GarfieldOREGON222023
DerbyOREGON191993
CanbyOREGON192024
DaytonOREGON182024
South ElmaWASHINGTON182024
AdairOREGON172024
SalemOREGON172024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA162019
GreenOREGON152024
Pe EllWASHINGTON152023
Fish RockCALIFORNIA142014
UmpquaOREGON142024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON142024
McminnvilleOREGON142024
ElktonOREGON122024
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA112012
ScioOREGON102024
ScappooseOREGON92023
CamasWASHINGTON92018
OrleansCALIFORNIA82012
RuchOREGON82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.