BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Quail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGame birds

California Quail in Great Basin has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+136%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has surged in Great Basin: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Quail In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.93.48.3
20275.93.58.4
20286.03.58.4
20296.13.68.5
20306.13.78.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Quail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carson RiverNEVADA652005
MesaWASHINGTON592008
MaldenWASHINGTON502025
FallonNEVADA462025
Bowden HillsOREGON451999
DorrisCALIFORNIA412019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA412025
Ewan 2WASHINGTON352025
EllensburgWASHINGTON332025
AdrianOREGON272025
WapatoWASHINGTON262022
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA242025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA242019
OrdnanceOREGON231979
Trout CreekOREGON232025
NubieberCALIFORNIA222018
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA212025
DeschutesOREGON202025
Alvord LakeOREGON202025
Pasadena ValIDAHO192016
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON192022
Modoc Point 2OREGON182025
BrewsterWASHINGTON182015
Moses LakeWASHINGTON182022
NighthawkWASHINGTON182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.