BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Quail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

California Quail in Great Basin has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+134%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has surged in Great Basin: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Quail In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.93.48.3
20265.93.58.4
20276.03.58.5
20286.13.68.5
20296.13.68.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Quail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallonNEVADA1472024
Carson RiverNEVADA652005
MesaWASHINGTON592008
Bowden HillsOREGON451999
DorrisCALIFORNIA412019
MaldenWASHINGTON382024
DeschutesOREGON342024
EllensburgWASHINGTON312024
Fandango CanOREGON302024
PicaboIDAHO292021
UmatillaOREGON292023
NighthawkWASHINGTON272024
WapatoWASHINGTON262022
Iron GateCALIFORNIA242019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA232024
OrdnanceOREGON231979
PendletonOREGON232024
NubieberCALIFORNIA222018
OdessaWASHINGTON222024
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA202024
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA192024
Pasadena ValIDAHO192016
NixonNEVADA192024
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON192022
Fish LakeOREGON182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.