BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Quail In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Quail In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.3
20261.30.003.2
20271.20.003.2
20281.20.003.1
20291.10.003.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongvaleCALIFORNIA232023
HullvilleCALIFORNIA222019
GazelleCALIFORNIA202021
Fish RockCALIFORNIA192014
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA162019
HoneydewCALIFORNIA112017
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA102024
KorbelCALIFORNIA102024
AdairOREGON102024
McminnvilleOREGON102024
ScappooseOREGON102023
Port AngelesWASHINGTON102023
DerbyOREGON91993
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA82016
ScioOREGON82024
NavarroCALIFORNIA72011
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA72012
Rio DellCALIFORNIA62012
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA62021
YrekaCALIFORNIA62019
UmpquaOREGON62024
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
GreenOREGON62024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA52024
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.