BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Quail In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGame birds

California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Quail In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.2
20271.30.003.2
20281.20.003.1
20291.10.003.0
20301.00.002.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording California Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongvaleCALIFORNIA232023
HullvilleCALIFORNIA222019
GazelleCALIFORNIA202021
Fish RockCALIFORNIA192014
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA162019
HoneydewCALIFORNIA112017
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA112025
DerbyOREGON91993
McminnvilleOREGON92025
KorbelCALIFORNIA82025
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA82016
ScioOREGON82025
NavarroCALIFORNIA72011
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA72012
CoquilleOREGON72025
ScappooseOREGON72025
Rio DellCALIFORNIA62012
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA62021
YrekaCALIFORNIA62019
Emigrant LkOREGON62001
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52015
UkiahCALIFORNIA52011
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA52017
Hazel CampOREGON52022
Sams ValleyOREGON52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.