BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Gull In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

California Gull in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 312% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+312%Since 1971
39Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

California Gull has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 312% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 323% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.05–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+323%Change by 2029
1.0Projected 2029 index
0.05–2.095% range
±128.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.960.001.9
20260.970.011.9
20270.980.031.9
20281.000.042.0
20291.00.052.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording California Gull in Prairie Potholes.
Great FallsMONTANA132023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82018
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Ester LakeMONTANA62024
SacoMONTANA62023
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA62008
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA52008
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA42004
GlasgowMONTANA32017
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA32006
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32022
Big StoneMINNESOTA22005
OswegoMONTANA22021
WhitlashMONTANA22016
WestbyMONTANA22016
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA22010
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
Hay LakeMONTANA12021
SunburstMONTANA11998
VirgelleMONTANA12001
ClevelandMONTANA12015
HarlemMONTANA12021
MaltaMONTANA12021
RedstoneMONTANA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.