BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-94%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±324.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.23
20260.000.000.23
20270.000.000.23
20280.000.000.23
20290.000.000.23

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarlemMONTANA32018
GlasgowMONTANA31989
ShelbyMONTANA22016
ChinookMONTANA22019
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA21980
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA21976
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA21998
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA21967
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
Hay LakeMONTANA11990
SunburstMONTANA11995
VirgelleMONTANA12023
ClevelandMONTANA11990
OswegoMONTANA12023
RedstoneMONTANA11992
Great FallsMONTANA12013
Ester LakeMONTANA12024
SacoMONTANA12024
SpartaNEBRASKA11991
MidwayNEBRASKA11967
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA11976
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA12010
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA12007
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA12017
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.