BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Great Basin has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
212Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.14.0
20263.12.14.0
20273.12.14.1
20283.12.24.1
20293.12.24.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA422019
NighthawkWASHINGTON342024
YakimaWASHINGTON272024
DorrisCALIFORNIA262019
EllensburgWASHINGTON222024
Modoc Point 2OREGON202024
NubieberCALIFORNIA162018
PromontoryUTAH162024
Pasadena ValIDAHO152016
PrestonIDAHO152023
Trout CreekOREGON152021
PocatelloIDAHO132019
Fish LakeOREGON132024
Warner VallyOREGON132024
DeltaUTAH122024
TwispWASHINGTON122024
Glenns FerryIDAHO111986
Ruby ValleyNEVADA112001
UmatillaOREGON112023
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA102024
MadelineCALIFORNIA102024
Alvord LakeOREGON102024
DuboisIDAHO92024
TonasketWASHINGTON92018
BakerIDAHO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.