BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.001.7
20260.310.001.6
20270.260.001.6
20280.220.001.6
20290.180.001.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UmpquaOREGON212024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA162019
GazelleCALIFORNIA142021
Emigrant LkOREGON112001
AlderpointCALIFORNIA102012
Sams ValleyOREGON102024
Secret ValOREGON82022
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA72017
DerbyOREGON71993
DaytonOREGON72015
SalemOREGON72024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA52016
YrekaCALIFORNIA52019
RuchOREGON52023
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA42012
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA32019
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA32024
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA32022
WinberryOREGON32016
Days CreekOREGON32024
AdairOREGON32024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32024
SelmaOREGON32024
ProspectOREGON32024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON32016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.