BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+429%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.87–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.87–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.764.1
20262.50.794.2
20272.50.814.2
20282.50.844.2
20292.60.874.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO192019
GirvinTEXAS152024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO92000
OzonaTEXAS92022
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO82024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO72023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO61977
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO52023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42024
Devils R CynTEXAS32024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22012
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22021
LongfellowTEXAS22024
AltudaTEXAS22019
CornudasTEXAS22018
LangtryTEXAS22000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22021
MarathonTEXAS22023
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11979
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.