BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+432%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.90–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.90–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.794.1
20272.50.814.2
20282.50.844.2
20292.50.874.2
20302.60.904.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO192019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO142025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO112025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO92000
OzonaTEXAS92022
GageNEW-MEXICO82025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO61977
GirvinTEXAS62025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO52025
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO42025
ComstockTEXAS42025
Devils R CynTEXAS42025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22012
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
LongfellowTEXAS22024
AltudaTEXAS22019
CornudasTEXAS22018
LangtryTEXAS22000
MarathonTEXAS22023
Van HornTEXAS22025
PumpvilleTEXAS22025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.