BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-76%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 974% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1054.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+974%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1054.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 974% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1054.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.660.001.7
20250.660.001.7
20260.660.001.7
20270.670.001.7
20280.670.001.7

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley SpgsTEXAS262005
BoerneTEXAS31977
FitzhughTEXAS21980
UtopiaTEXAS12007
HarperTEXAS12010
San SabaTEXAS12012
PidcokeTEXAS11993
KempnerTEXAS11992
AdamsvilleTEXAS11973
Dripping SpgTEXAS11989
LeakeyTEXAS12017
MontellTEXAS12023
Allen CreekTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.