BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.001.9
20270.780.001.8
20280.770.001.8
20290.760.001.8
20300.740.001.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GirardTEXAS212025
EldoradoTEXAS162023
LakeviewTEXAS72025
WeinertTEXAS61994
WilliamsTEXAS62021
MisslerKANSAS51986
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA51997
ErickOKLAHOMA52018
RandlettOKLAHOMA42005
CookietownOKLAHOMA42006
Pear ValleyTEXAS42025
HackberryTEXAS42024
ShieldsTEXAS42001
ReedOKLAHOMA32019
CoopertonOKLAHOMA31996
HollisOKLAHOMA32025
RotanTEXAS32024
AshlandKANSAS22014
JewellKANSAS22002
GordonNEBRASKA22007
GrimesOKLAHOMA22025
RosstonOKLAHOMA22011
BeaverOKLAHOMA22018
ChildressTEXAS22025
Mertzon 2TEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.