BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+103%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.09
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.040.000.09
20290.040.000.09

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChinookMONTANA32024
Sun RiverMONTANA32018
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA31997
HarlemMONTANA22005
Great FallsMONTANA21989
VirgelleMONTANA12018
MaltaMONTANA12016
GlasgowMONTANA12024
WhitlashMONTANA12017
ShelbyMONTANA12017
Ester LakeMONTANA12018
SacoMONTANA12016
Wolf PointMONTANA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.