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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+111%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11
20300.050.000.11

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClevelandMONTANA32025
ChinookMONTANA32024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA31997
HarlemMONTANA22005
GlasgowMONTANA22025
Great FallsMONTANA21989
VirgelleMONTANA12025
MaltaMONTANA12016
WhitlashMONTANA12017
ShelbyMONTANA12017
Ester LakeMONTANA12018
SacoMONTANA12025
Wolf PointMONTANA12021
Sun RiverMONTANA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.