BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.82 (95% range 0.27–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.82 (95% range 0.27–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.281.4
20260.830.281.4
20270.830.281.4
20280.820.271.4
20290.820.271.4

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON432001
TwickenhamOREGON212024
Clyde ParkMONTANA132024
Green RiverWYOMING111984
DonnybrookOREGON91997
MidvaleWYOMING92022
CascadeIDAHO81983
BridgeportOREGON72022
LaurelMONTANA62022
OttoWYOMING62024
LayCOLORADO52024
MadrasOREGON52024
CentervilleIDAHO42019
Crane CreekIDAHO42019
FeathervilleIDAHO42024
Pablo Res.MONTANA42024
Church HillMONTANA42024
Threemile WaMONTANA42023
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA42013
NewbridgeOREGON42024
FrannieWYOMING42023
TensleepWYOMING42023
HarmonyWYOMING42022
MaybellCOLORADO32024
PolsonMONTANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.