BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Piedmont has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.66.5
20265.13.66.5
20275.13.66.5
20285.13.66.5
20295.03.66.5

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AthensGEORGIA242024
LincolntonGEORGIA222017
OwingsSOUTH-CAROLINA212004
Liberty CityALABAMA202011
FairplayGEORGIA201991
EmmitsburgMARYLAND192024
EarltonMARYLAND182024
HiramGEORGIA172018
CandlerGEORGIA172024
HollonvilleGEORGIA162003
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA162015
WhitesburgGEORGIA152024
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA152024
RutledgeGEORGIA142024
Stoney PointGEORGIA142007
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA142024
MillervilleALABAMA132024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA122024
SiloamNORTH-CAROLINA122024
BowdonGEORGIA112024
JulietteGEORGIA112024
Rock BranchGEORGIA112024
FlayNORTH-CAROLINA112024
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA102024
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.