BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Piedmont has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.13.76.6
20275.13.66.6
20285.13.66.6
20295.13.66.6
20305.13.66.6

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LincolntonGEORGIA222017
OwingsSOUTH-CAROLINA212004
Liberty CityALABAMA202011
FairplayGEORGIA201991
OlneyMARYLAND202025
EarltonMARYLAND182024
HiramGEORGIA172018
HollonvilleGEORGIA162003
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA162025
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA162015
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA152025
Kite LakeGEORGIA142025
Stoney PointGEORGIA142007
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA142025
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA132025
EmmitsburgMARYLAND132025
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA132025
FlayNORTH-CAROLINA132025
BowdonGEORGIA122025
RutledgeGEORGIA122025
WhitesburgGEORGIA122025
CandlerGEORGIA122025
StockbridgeGEORGIA112025
JulietteGEORGIA112025
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.