BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
399Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.33.5
20272.41.33.4
20282.31.23.4
20292.31.23.4
20302.31.23.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA362024
GreensportALABAMA222025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY211997
TalladegaALABAMA182025
BrooksvilleALABAMA172025
DrummondALABAMA152024
ChoccoloccoALABAMA142025
LinwoodGEORGIA142023
DearmanvilleALABAMA131983
ShannonGEORGIA132019
ChildersburgALABAMA121999
OdenvilleALABAMA112025
LakeviewALABAMA112025
WilliamsportMARYLAND112025
BlacksburgVIRGINIA112025
DurhamNEW-YORK101974
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA102025
LovellTENNESSEE102019
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA102025
Coal RunOHIO91992
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA92025
MoundsvilleWEST-VIRGINIA92025
Mt OliveALABAMA82025
JasperALABAMA81999
CartersvilleGEORGIA82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.