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Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
397Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.33.4
20262.31.23.4
20272.31.23.4
20282.31.23.4
20292.31.23.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA362024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY211997
DrummondALABAMA152024
TalladegaALABAMA142024
LinwoodGEORGIA142023
DearmanvilleALABAMA131983
BrooksvilleALABAMA132023
ShannonGEORGIA132019
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA132018
ChildersburgALABAMA121999
GreensportALABAMA112024
Pine GroveALABAMA102024
LakeviewALABAMA102024
ChoccoloccoALABAMA102024
FinzelMARYLAND102024
DurhamNEW-YORK101974
LovellTENNESSEE102019
HixWEST-VIRGINIA102024
Coal RunOHIO91992
Signal MtnTENNESSEE92024
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA92024
JasperALABAMA81999
Amos MillGEORGIA82022
MckeeKENTUCKY82024
KehoeKENTUCKY81992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.