BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 5.1–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 5.1–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.05.16.8
20266.05.16.8
20276.05.16.8
20286.05.16.8
20295.95.16.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA312024
New HopeFLORIDA182011
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI181987
LovedaleFLORIDA172011
DoverGEORGIA172024
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI172013
Big SandyTENNESSEE172024
Rock ChapelALABAMA162024
CallahanFLORIDA162024
RentzGEORGIA162024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI162016
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA162024
ShilohGEORGIA152024
ElamvilleALABAMA142024
Port St JoeFLORIDA142011
GuytonGEORGIA141993
White HillGEORGIA142024
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI142001
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA142013
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142024
St. ElmoALABAMA132021
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA132022
FitzgeraldGEORGIA132024
Coffee CoGEORGIA132024
OusleyGEORGIA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.