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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.23.7
20272.41.23.7
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.13.6
20302.41.13.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarrisburgARKANSAS92009
MayflowerLOUISIANA82025
DelhiLOUISIANA82021
Rayville 2LOUISIANA82025
SaffellARKANSAS72019
RoselandLOUISIANA72025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA72025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA72025
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
IsolaMISSISSIPPI62022
MoonMISSISSIPPI62018
EudoraARKANSAS52025
KeystoneLOUISIANA52013
RayvilleLOUISIANA52008
FloydLOUISIANA52021
GonzalesLOUISIANA52019
ConcordLOUISIANA52019
River RoadLOUISIANA52025
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI52011
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE52025
WilsonARKANSAS42025
BardwellKENTUCKY42003
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI42025
AugustaARKANSAS32001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.