BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.23.7
20262.41.23.7
20272.41.23.7
20282.41.23.7
20292.41.23.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton RougeLOUISIANA112024
HarrisburgARKANSAS92009
Rayville 2LOUISIANA92024
DelhiLOUISIANA82021
SaffellARKANSAS72019
RoselandLOUISIANA62024
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
BrousvilleLOUISIANA62024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62024
River RoadLOUISIANA62024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI62022
MoonMISSISSIPPI62018
KeystoneLOUISIANA52013
MayflowerLOUISIANA52024
RayvilleLOUISIANA52008
FloydLOUISIANA52021
GonzalesLOUISIANA52019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA52022
ConcordLOUISIANA52019
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI52011
BardwellKENTUCKY42003
KraemerLOUISIANA42023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI42024
AugustaARKANSAS32001
UlmARKANSAS32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.