BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.722.2
20261.40.702.2
20271.40.692.2
20281.40.672.2
20291.40.662.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DerryLOUISIANA81989
ChathamLOUISIANA81975
SmyrnaTEXAS72010
PoyenARKANSAS62007
BlakelyARKANSAS61999
HavanaARKANSAS62019
Fishville 2LOUISIANA62024
HaughtonLOUISIANA62024
MortonTEXAS62024
EastonTEXAS62013
Locust BayouARKANSAS52023
NanceARKANSAS52023
FishvilleLOUISIANA52017
ClayLOUISIANA52024
OakdaleLOUISIANA51994
StarkARKANSAS42024
Coal HillARKANSAS42023
SpringhillARKANSAS42022
EastonLOUISIANA41990
GraysonLOUISIANA42019
PocolaOKLAHOMA42016
DibollTEXAS42024
CrowsARKANSAS31991
De RidderLOUISIANA32019
Fort PolkLOUISIANA31975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.