BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.63–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.63–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.702.2
20271.40.682.1
20281.40.662.1
20291.40.652.1
20301.40.632.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fishville 2LOUISIANA102025
DerryLOUISIANA81989
ChathamLOUISIANA81975
SmyrnaTEXAS72010
PoyenARKANSAS62007
BlakelyARKANSAS61999
HavanaARKANSAS62019
DibollTEXAS62025
EastonTEXAS62013
Locust BayouARKANSAS52023
FishvilleLOUISIANA52017
OakdaleLOUISIANA51994
CrossroadsTEXAS52025
Coal HillARKANSAS42023
SpringhillARKANSAS42022
EastonLOUISIANA41990
TroutLOUISIANA42025
GraysonLOUISIANA42019
PocolaOKLAHOMA42016
CrowsARKANSAS31991
StarkARKANSAS32025
StephensARKANSAS32025
De RidderLOUISIANA32019
Fort PolkLOUISIANA31975
Derry 2LOUISIANA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.