BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Thrasher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.75
20260.220.000.74
20270.200.000.72
20280.190.000.71
20290.180.000.70

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS82002
SkiatookOKLAHOMA52019
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Miller GroveTEXAS32007
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22016
BeggsOKLAHOMA22022
LocoOKLAHOMA11979
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12001
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12015
NobleOKLAHOMA12023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12024
TatumsOKLAHOMA12021
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12022
DuncanOKLAHOMA12022
SchroederTEXAS11972
LockhartTEXAS11985
Oak GroveTEXAS11974
GauseTEXAS11978
OakwoodTEXAS11987
OlaTEXAS11996
DallasTEXAS11976
Glen RoseTEXAS11999
WeatherfordTEXAS12009
GrafordTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.