BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969
43Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Brown Thrasher has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2029
0.18Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7095% range
±191.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.230.000.75
20260.220.000.74
20270.200.000.72
20280.190.000.71
20290.180.000.70

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies.
Massey LakeTEXAS82002
SkiatookOKLAHOMA52019
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
Miller GroveTEXAS32007
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22016
BeggsOKLAHOMA22022
LocoOKLAHOMA11979
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12001
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12015
NobleOKLAHOMA12023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12024
TatumsOKLAHOMA12021
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12022
DuncanOKLAHOMA12022
SchroederTEXAS11972
LockhartTEXAS11985
Oak GroveTEXAS11974
GauseTEXAS11978
OakwoodTEXAS11987
OlaTEXAS11996
DallasTEXAS11976
Glen RoseTEXAS11999
WeatherfordTEXAS12009
GrafordTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.