BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.001.3
20270.470.001.3
20280.470.001.3
20290.470.001.3
20300.470.001.3

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoetheFLORIDA252025
Punta GordaFLORIDA81986
WebbFLORIDA72025
PinelandsFLORIDA62024
RomeoFLORIDA42023
St AugustineFLORIDA32022
BelmoreFLORIDA32022
PinecrestFLORIDA32024
DeanvilleFLORIDA32015
Green SwampFLORIDA32025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA31988
Wildernes PkFLORIDA32013
Myakka HeadFLORIDA21967
ChildsFLORIDA21970
KenansvilleFLORIDA22025
HomesteadFLORIDA22022
CroomFLORIDA22003
MicanopyFLORIDA11989
San AntonioFLORIDA11991
Polk CityFLORIDA11990
SalvistaFLORIDA11969
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12008
KissimmeeFLORIDA12015
ArbuckleFLORIDA12019
AlvaFLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.