BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+246%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.180.56
20260.380.180.57
20270.380.190.57
20280.390.200.58
20290.400.200.59

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MadisonMARYLAND152024
CokesburyMARYLAND102024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE62024
WalnutMARYLAND52016
Furnace TownMARYLAND42024
HongaMARYLAND32024
FrankfordDELAWARE21978
PepperboxDELAWARE22016
FruitlandMARYLAND21966
TruhartVIRGINIA22023
HolleyvilleDELAWARE11975
GeorgetownDELAWARE12021
MelitotaMARYLAND11989
NewarkMARYLAND12024
Snow HillMARYLAND11975
Island CreekMARYLAND12022
BerlinMARYLAND12021
IndiantownMARYLAND12005
White StoneVIRGINIA12024
QuinbyVIRGINIA12024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.