BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+442%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.17–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.17–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.140.74
20270.450.150.75
20280.460.150.76
20290.470.160.77
20300.470.170.78

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MadisonMARYLAND562025
HongaMARYLAND192025
Furnace TownMARYLAND82025
CokesburyMARYLAND72025
WalnutMARYLAND52016
HarringtonDELAWARE22025
FrankfordDELAWARE21978
PepperboxDELAWARE22016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE22025
FruitlandMARYLAND21966
TruhartVIRGINIA22023
HolleyvilleDELAWARE11975
GeorgetownDELAWARE12021
MelitotaMARYLAND11989
NewarkMARYLAND12025
Snow HillMARYLAND11975
Island CreekMARYLAND12022
BerlinMARYLAND12021
IndiantownMARYLAND12005
White StoneVIRGINIA12024
QuinbyVIRGINIA12024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.