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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 2.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 2.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025113.119
2026112.819
2027112.518
2028102.318
202910.02.018

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS311985
Dripping SpgTEXAS282024
San SabaTEXAS242024
HarperTEXAS232024
UtopiaTEXAS222024
ManorTEXAS172024
FitzhughTEXAS91983
Pidcoke 2TEXAS92024
MontellTEXAS92024
Valley SpgsTEXAS82024
AdamsvilleTEXAS82024
Indian MtnTEXAS72024
RockspringTEXAS72024
BoerneTEXAS62024
Allen CreekTEXAS52024
LeakeyTEXAS42024
LeanderTEXAS32006
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
KempnerTEXAS22024
PidcokeTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.