BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 59 (95% range 42–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
42–7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 59 (95% range 42–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025584175
2026584176
2027594176
2028594176
2029594276

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA2092024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1822024
SpartaNEBRASKA1492021
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA1362024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1302024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA1232011
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA1222024
Winside 2NEBRASKA1082022
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1082023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA1052022
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA1042024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1011984
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA972024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA962019
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA922024
PoncaNEBRASKA852024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA822024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA812023
RedstoneMONTANA752024
GlentanaMONTANA752024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA752013
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA742014
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA722024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA711983
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA692023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.