BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 891% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+891%Since 1972
8Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 891% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.51–1.895% range
±91%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.441.7
20261.10.461.7
20271.10.471.7
20281.10.491.8
20291.10.511.8

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Three RiversTEXAS472024
HobsonTEXAS142024
BriteTEXAS82024
CampbelltonTEXAS52024
FanninTEXAS42022
YoakumTEXAS32024
SchroederTEXAS21997
Lone OakTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.