BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

13×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.56–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.56–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.481.8
20271.20.501.9
20281.20.521.9
20291.20.541.9
20301.20.561.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS742025
HobsonTEXAS102025
BriteTEXAS102025
CampbelltonTEXAS52024
FanninTEXAS32025
SchroederTEXAS21997
Lone OakTEXAS12017
YoakumTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.