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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+85%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.001.4
20270.520.001.4
20280.520.001.4
20290.520.001.4
20300.530.001.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS32025
Indian MtnTEXAS22025
MontellTEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS11975
UtopiaTEXAS11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.