BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 426% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+426%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 426% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown Creeper In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.6
20272.01.32.6
20282.01.32.7
20292.01.42.7
20302.01.42.7

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON262025
ClearwaterOREGON162025
RainierWASHINGTON152025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON142025
CinderellaOREGON142025
HolmesCALIFORNIA132025
RuchOREGON122025
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA102025
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA92013
Fish RockCALIFORNIA82014
GarfieldOREGON82025
Myrtle GroveOREGON82024
DeceptionWASHINGTON82018
CarnationWASHINGTON72025
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA62025
WinberryOREGON62023
Whiskey Spg.OREGON62015
SelmaOREGON62025
HarlanOREGON62008
FisherOREGON62010
CougarWASHINGTON62023
IlwacoWASHINGTON62025
Kuiu IslandALASKA52010
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA52014
ShellrockOREGON52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.