BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+286%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown Creeper In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.32.3
20261.81.32.3
20271.91.42.3
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.42.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HolmesCALIFORNIA182024
CraigALASKA132018
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON122024
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA92013
Fish RockCALIFORNIA82014
Myrtle GroveOREGON82024
CarnationWASHINGTON82024
DeceptionWASHINGTON82018
ClearwaterOREGON72021
ShellrockOREGON62023
WinberryOREGON62023
RuchOREGON62023
Whiskey Spg.OREGON62015
HarlanOREGON62008
FisherOREGON62010
CougarWASHINGTON62023
RainierWASHINGTON62019
HopeALASKA52024
Mitkof IsleALASKA52024
Kuiu IslandALASKA52010
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA52014
ElktonOREGON52024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON52024
CinderellaOREGON52024
Sandy RiverOREGON52006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.