BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Central Hardwoods has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.100.29
20260.200.100.29
20270.200.100.30
20280.200.100.30
20290.200.100.30

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rueter 2MISSOURI52024
TrianaALABAMA42001
LeveeKENTUCKY31982
Levee 2KENTUCKY32018
ClementineMISSOURI32002
Indian MoundTENNESSEE31991
PulaskiILLINOIS22022
SpencerINDIANA21992
VevayINDIANA21969
HoosierINDIANA22023
PlumKENTUCKY22021
East UnionKENTUCKY22021
ApexKENTUCKY22008
PleasurevillKENTUCKY21997
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY22014
HaydenMISSOURI22016
SyracuseMISSOURI22016
CentertownMISSOURI22013
BennettMISSOURI22018
Clementine 2MISSOURI22005
MillerMISSOURI22015
PalaceMISSOURI22019
PetersburgTENNESSEE21984
HillsboroALABAMA11994
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.