BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BravoMICHIGAN21988
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN22021
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN21998
CumberlandWISCONSIN22024
UnityWISCONSIN21998
ElderonWISCONSIN22002
CascoWISCONSIN21976
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN22024
GuilfordILLINOIS11990
Columbia CtyINDIANA12004
Indiana DuneINDIANA12007
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11985
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12019
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11979
NashvilleMICHIGAN11982
MontereyMICHIGAN12024
RemusMICHIGAN12018
No BradleyMICHIGAN12024
OlaMICHIGAN12016
WaldenburgMICHIGAN12015
CohoctahMICHIGAN12023
Belding 2MICHIGAN12024
RochesterMICHIGAN12024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12019
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.