BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+73%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WayneILLINOIS21998
DudleyvilleILLINOIS22013
WrefordKANSAS22022
DanvilleMISSOURI22023
EmdenMISSOURI22023
AuburnMISSOURI22021
Mill CreekILLINOIS11997
New LenoxILLINOIS11968
BelleviewILLINOIS11996
BerneINDIANA11976
MilroyINDIANA11982
AndersonINDIANA12005
Mt HamillIOWA12001
NeolaIOWA11976
OlatheKANSAS12016
MadisonMISSOURI12015
CameronMISSOURI12023
ElmoMISSOURI12021
House SpringsMISSOURI12021
UnionMISSOURI11997
MoselleMISSOURI12023
No KentonOHIO11979
Ash RidgeOHIO12009
River FallsWISCONSIN11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.