BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brewer's Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brewer's Blackbird has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brewer's Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.0012
20274.20.0012
20283.80.0011
20293.40.0011
20303.10.0011

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay ViewWASHINGTON1152017
YrekaCALIFORNIA1102019
Emigrant LkOREGON1022001
GazelleCALIFORNIA952021
DaytonOREGON682025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA592025
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA452019
UmpquaOREGON412025
SalemOREGON402025
Sandy RiverOREGON362006
AlderpointCALIFORNIA332012
CanbyOREGON302025
AdairOREGON282025
GreenOREGON272025
KorbelCALIFORNIA232025
DerbyOREGON221993
IssaquahWASHINGTON191987
Port AngelesWASHINGTON182025
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON172025
Martins FyCALIFORNIA151997
OrleansCALIFORNIA151994
McminnvilleOREGON152025
CoquilleOREGON142023
South ElmaWASHINGTON142024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA132012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.