BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brewer's Blackbird has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brewer's Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.80.0012
20264.50.0012
20274.10.0012
20283.70.0011
20293.30.0011

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay ViewWASHINGTON1152017
YrekaCALIFORNIA1102019
Emigrant LkOREGON1022001
GazelleCALIFORNIA952021
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA452019
Sandy RiverOREGON362006
AlderpointCALIFORNIA332012
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA322024
ElktonOREGON322024
CanbyOREGON322024
SalemOREGON322024
DaytonOREGON302024
UmpquaOREGON232024
McminnvilleOREGON232024
DerbyOREGON221993
AdairOREGON192024
IssaquahWASHINGTON191987
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON172024
Martins FyCALIFORNIA151997
OrleansCALIFORNIA151994
CoquilleOREGON142023
South ElmaWASHINGTON142024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA132012
RainierWASHINGTON132019
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON132022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.