BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bohemian Waxwing In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Bohemian Waxwing in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-72%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bohemian Waxwing has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Bohemian Waxwing In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bohemian Waxwing in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bohemian Waxwing in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.002.1
20270.410.002.1
20280.380.002.0
20290.360.002.0
20300.340.002.0

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Bohemian Waxwing in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ToklatALASKA151982
Nabesna RoadALASKA132024
NorthwayALASKA122025
Moose CreekALASKA92016
Kanuti CanynALASKA72024
Tower BluffsALASKA62025
Goose BayALASKA61976
Hatcher PassALASKA61985
Chatanika RALASKA52023
Tangle LakesALASKA51987
KuskulanaALASKA52025
Bear CreekALASKA41990
Nicholai SlALASKA42021
ColdfootALASKA42022
MonahanALASKA32021
CantwellALASKA32019
MatanuskaALASKA31983
TonsinaALASKA32021
Unalakleet RiverALASKA32019
Mt. FairplayALASKA32022
Mud RiverALASKA32024
Anvik RiverALASKA32019
Skilak LakeALASKA21984
WillowALASKA21998
L SalchaALASKA22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.